Liberty vs UTEP Prediction: Flames Edge Miners in Tight CUSA Clash

November 24, 2025 Noah

College football fans love a good underdog story, especially in the heat of Conference USA football. On Wednesday, October 8, 2025, the Liberty Flames travel to face the UTEP Miners at the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network. Both teams enter at 1-4 overall and 0-1 in conference play, desperate for their first win. But if you’re searching for a Liberty vs UTEP prediction, the Flames hold a slight edge based on history, schemes, and stats.

This game is super important. It is not just about saying “my team is better.” Both teams really need a win right now. People who bet money on games want this one for week 7. Liberty fans want to see good numbers and stats for their team. Liberty leads the all-time series 2-0, with wins of 42-28 in 2023 and 28-10 in 2024. Expect a gritty battle where Liberty’s option offense tests UTEP’s top-ranked CUSA defense. We’ll break it down step by step, from team backgrounds to bold picks. No matter if you are a big Liberty fan who loves the Flames, or you like to bet and look at numbers to pick winners, this story is made just for you!

Table of Contents

Team Backgrounds: Liberty Flames

The Liberty Flames have a coach named Jamey Chadwell. This is his third year. Liberty started playing big college football in 2018. They got really good fast. In 2023, Coach Chadwell helped them win every game (13 wins, 0 losses) and play in a big bowl game called the Fiesta Bowl.

But this year (2025) has been hard. They won their first game 28-7 against a small school named Maine. Then they lost four games in a row:

34-24 to Jacksonville State
23-13 to Bowling Green
31-13 to James Madison
21-7 to Old Dominion last week

Liberty’s identity? A balanced attack blending run and pass, with a defense that’s stingy against the air game. They rank No. 1 in CUSA for fewest passing yards allowed (under 200 per game). Offensively, they’ve averaged 23.7 points per game, but injuries have hurt. Liberty’s quarterback is Ethan Vasko. He came from another school called Coastal Carolina. He hurt his shoulder and missed last week’s game, but he will play this week.

Vasko is one of the top 31 quarterbacks in the whole country. He can run and throw really well. Even with only a few games, he already has more than 2,000 total yards this year

Key to their success: Depth in the backfield and schematic tricks. Coach Chadwell’s system keeps defenses guessing with option plays and varied formations. Coach Chadwell told reporters, “UTEP plays very fast. That is hard for us. But we practiced staying in the right spots. It does not matter who their quarterback is.”

For the rest of 2025, many people think Liberty will start winning again. They were the best team in the conference the last two years. Most of the teams left on their schedule are not very good. This game at UTEP is the first big test. If they win here, they can feel good about the rest of the season.

Liberty Flames Key Stats (Through Week 6, 2025)

Record: 1-4 overall, 0-1 CUSA
Points For/Against: 23.7 PPG / 23.6 PPG
Yards Per Game: 346 total offense (7th in CUSA)
Rushing: 141 YPG (led by RB Evan Dickens: 344 yards, 2 TDs, 5.3 YPC)
Passing: 205 YPG (QB Vasko: 60% completion, 8 TDs when healthy)
Defense: No. 1 CUSA pass defense (178 YPG allowed); 14 sacks allowed (vulnerable up front)
Turnover Margin: +2 (strong ball security)

Fans of the Flames know resilience defines this program. From FCS glory to FBS contenders, Liberty’s journey inspires. Alumni pack Williams Stadium back home, but this away game tests their mettle. For deeper dives, check out Liberty Flames vs UTEP Miners head-to-head history and prediction¹.

Team Backgrounds: UTEP Miners

The UTEP Miners are playing their last year in Conference USA. Next year (2026) they move to the Mountain West. They have been in big college football since 1962, but they have only won 3 bowl games ever. Now they have a new young coach named Scotty Walden. He brings a lot of new energy to the team. Walden, who went 26-14 at FCS Austin Peay with a playoff run, posted a 3-9 mark in 2024—UCLA’s worst since 2017. This year?UTEP has only one win this year. They beat a small school 42-17.

After that, they lost these games:

28-16 to Utah State
27-10 to Texas
31-25 to Louisiana-Monroe
30-11 to Louisiana Tech (their first conference game)

UTEP’s strength? A suffocating defense that’s No. 1 in CUSA total yards allowed (340.4 YPG) and points (26.6 PPG). They lead the league in sacks (15) and tackles for loss (national top-10). Offensively, it’s a work in progress. They average 20.8 PPG (7th in CUSA), plagued by turnovers—10 interceptions tied for most in FBS. QB Malachi Nelson, a former five-star recruit from USC and Boise State, has 1,142 passing yards and 8 TDs but 9 picks. Backup Skyler Locklear adds mobility but threw two INTs last outing.

Walden’s up-tempo scheme mirrors Liberty’s, creating intrigue. “Liberty’s a really good team despite the record,” Walden noted. “Their option keeps us honest—we’ve got to fix our mistakes.” UTEP’s defense is getting better. Linebacker Micah Davey leads the league with 51 tackles. Linebacker Udoka Ezeani has 4 sacks and stops runners behind the line a lot.

But UTEP’s running game is weak – only 101 yards per game (one of the worst in the country).

Playing at home at night in the Sun Bowl is fun and loud. That could help the Miners play much better this time.

UTEP Miners Key Stats (Through Week 6, 2025)

Record: 1-4 overall, 0-1 CUSA
Points For/Against: 20.8 PPG / 26.6 PPG
Yards Per Game: 346 total offense (tied with Liberty)
Rushing: 101 YPG (RB Hahsaun Wilson: 214 yards, 1 TD, 6.9 YPC)
Passing: 245 YPG (QB Nelson: 100/180, 63% completion; WR Kenny Odom: 23 rec., 247 yards, 2 TDs)
Defense: No. 1 CUSA total D (340 YPG allowed); 3rd in rush D (153 YPG)
Turnover Margin: -9 (121st nationally—big red flag)

UTEP’s grit shines in close games; they’ve lost three by one score. For bettors, their home underdog ATS record (1-2 as 1.5+ dogs) offers value. Explore more in Liberty vs UTEP football matchup preview with stats².

Head-to-Head History: Flames Own the Series

Liberty and UTEP first clashed in 2023, a 42-28 Flames rout in Lynchburg. Kaidon Salter threw for 304 yards and ran for 112, exposing UTEP’s secondary. Last year, Liberty won 28-10 on the road, holding UTEP to 217 total yards. Common threads? Liberty’s rushing dominance (over 200 yards both times) and UTEP’s turnovers (3 total).

No blowouts here, both games stayed within 14 until late. With UTEP departing CUSA, this could be the finale, adding stakes. Historically, Liberty’s 2-0 edge boosts its team’s win probability to 68% in simulations. When these two teams play each other, Liberty always wins. Liberty attacks with both run and pass. UTEP is good at defense but weak at scoring. So, past games and this year say Liberty will win again.

Game Year	Score	Key Stat	Winner
2023	Liberty 42, UTEP 28	Liberty: 312 rush yds	Flames
2024	Liberty 28, UTEP 10	UTEP: 3 turnovers	Flames

This history underscores why models like Versus Sports Simulator project Liberty at 68% win odds.

Where the Game Will Be Won

Every Liberty UTEP matchup analysis boils down to these battles. Let’s break them into simple lists for easy reading.

Offense vs. Defense: Liberty’s Option vs. UTEP’s Front Seven

Liberty RB Evan Dickens vs. UTEP LB Micah Davey: Dickens (5.3 YPC) faces Davey (51 tackles). UTEP stops 153 rush YPG, but Liberty’s schemes create mismatches. Edge: Liberty if Vasko scrambles.
UTEP QB Malachi Nelson vs. Liberty Secondary: Nelson’s 9 INTs meet Liberty’s No. 1 CUSA pass D. Flames allow just 178 air yards/game. Tip: Bet under on Nelson passes if pressured.
Liberty WR Donte Lee Jr. vs. UTEP CBs: Lee’s 26.3 YPR could exploit UTEP’s 24% 3rd-down stop rate.

Special Teams and Intangibles

Punting Battle: Both average 42 yards—field position matters in a low-scoring affair.
Turnovers: UTEP’s -9 margin vs. Liberty’s +2. Quote from Chadwell: “Ball security wins midweeks.”

For analytical fans, these tilt Liberty vs UTEP spread toward the Flames. See simulations at Simulated Liberty vs UTEP outcome for college football 2025³.

Statistical Breakdown: Numbers Don’t Lie

Category	Liberty Flames	UTEP Miners	Edge
PPG Scored	23.7	20.8	Liberty
PPG Allowed	23.6	26.6	Liberty
Rush YPG	141	101	Liberty
Pass YPG	205	245	UTEP
Total YPG	346	346	Even
Sacks	10	15	UTEP
Turnovers Forced	8	5	Liberty
3rd-Down Conv.	38%	35%	Liberty

Liberty’s efficiency shines: 5.3 yards/play vs. UTEP’s 4.8. In college football simulation runs, Liberty wins 68% with a 28-20 score. UTEP’s D ranks top-3 in CUSA stops, but their offense ranks 119th in EPA/pass. For point spread predictions, Liberty covers 70% in models.

Tip for Bettors: Track turnover props, UTEP’s 10 INTs lead FBS.

Injury Report and Coaching Insights

Injuries shape narratives. Liberty’s quarterback, Vasko, hurt his shoulder, but he will play. Having him back makes Liberty more likely to win the game. Backup saw limited snaps last week. UTEP’s Nelson starts despite benching; no major D absences.

Coaches matter. Chadwell’s 78% win rate at Liberty emphasizes tempo (top-20 nationally). Walden’s 3-9 debut year? He’s fixed the run D but not turnovers. “Toughest prep yet,” Walden said of Liberty’s schemes. Chadwell countered: “Their QBs are athletic—the game plan stays the same.”

These insights fuel Liberty vs UTEP predictions for sports bettors: Expect adjustments mid-game.

Betting Odds and Lines: Value Plays

Odds via DraftKings (as of October 7, 2025):

Spread: Liberty -1.5 (-110) / UTEP +1.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Liberty -113 / UTEP +106
Over/Under: 45.5 (-110 both)

Liberty vs UTEP betting line favors the Flames slightly, reflecting series history. Models project over 52 points in 60% of sims, but recent trends say under (Liberty games average 41 total).

Best Bets:

Liberty ML (-113): 68% win prob—safe for parlays.
Under 45.5 (-110): Both Ds top-30 in points allowed.
Evan Dickens Over 65.5 rush yds (+100): He’s hit in 3/5 games.

For where to bet on the Liberty vs UTEP football game, try FanDuel for boosts. Tie in with football betting tips from similar matchups.

Expert Predictions: Our Liberty vs UTEP Prediction

Drawing from sports prediction models, here’s our take.

Score Prediction: Liberty 24, UTEP 20. Flames pull away late with Vasko’s legs.

Against the Spread: Liberty -1.5. They cover 70% of road favorites under Chadwell.

Over/Under: Under 45.5. Turnovers and Ds keep it low-scoring.

For Liberty vs UTEP prediction picks and parlays, parlay Liberty ML + Under for +250. Analytical edge: Liberty’s 66.7% win rate vs. sub-.500 teams.

Player Props:

Vasko Over 150 pass yds (-120)
Nelson Under 1.5 TDs (+150)—INT risk high.

This aligns with Flames vs Miners prediction trends: Liberty’s balance wins gritty games.

What Liberty Supporters Are Saying

From A Sea of Red forums, Flames fans buzz with cautious optimism. “Vasko’s back—road W incoming,” posted one alum. UTEP backers on local boards highlight home cooking: “Our D eats options for breakfast.”

For casual viewers, tune in for midweek drama. It’s not primetime SEC, but CFB game predictions like this build loyalties. Link to broader CUSA vibes in Conference USA football recaps.

Advanced Analytics: Diving Deeper

Some betting computers say the game will go over the points total. But we look at better numbers: Liberty is ranked #110, and UTEP is #138. That means Liberty is stronger, so we pick the under. Expected score? 24-20 Flames.

Win Probability Breakdown:

1st Quarter: 52% Liberty
Halftime: 55% Liberty
4th Quarter: 68% Liberty (if leading)

Liberty UTEP point spread and over/under analysis: Spread holds at -1.5 due to Liberty’s 3-2 ATS as favorites. O/U drops from 48.5, public fading points.

For the Liberty vs UTEP 2025 week 7 prediction, data says Flames rebound.

Historical Context in CUSA

Conference USA football evolves yearly. Liberty’s 2023 title run (13-0) set benchmarks; UTEP’s best? 7-6 in 2021. Both 1-4 now, but CUSA’s parity shines, six teams projected 4.8-5.8 wins.

Standings snapshot (pre-Week 7):

Western Kentucky: 5-2
Jacksonville St.: 4-3
Liberty/UTEP: 1-4

This win catapults Liberty toward bowl contention. For Liberty Flames vs UTEP Miners betting odds and picks, history favors the visitor.

What to Watch For: Game-Day Keys

First Drive: Who controls tempo? Liberty’s pace wears Ds down.
Red Zone Efficiency: UTEP 70% conversion; Liberty 85%.
Weather: El Paso’s dry heat (70s) favors run games.
Halftime Adjustments: Walden’s subs spark UTEP; Chadwell’s don’t.

Over/under picks: Lean Under if turnovers hit 3+. Casual fans eye Vasko’s scrambles for highlights.

FAQs

Who will win the Liberty vs UTEP game?

Most numbers and experts say Liberty will win. They think the score will be about 24-20. Liberty plays smarter and has beaten UTEP the last two times.

What is the point spread?

Liberty is favored by 1.5 points. That means if you bet on Liberty, they have to win by 2 or more points to win the bet. If they win by just 1 point, UTEP covers the spread.

Will the game have a lot of points?

No, we think it will be low scoring. The over/under line is 45.5 points. Both teams have good defenses, so we pick them.

Is Liberty’s quarterback playing?

Yes! His name is Ethan Vasko. He hurt his shoulder and missed last week, but he is back for this game. He is a very good quarterback who can run and throw.

Have these teams played before?

Yes, they played in 2023 and 2024. Liberty won both games: 42-28 and 28-10. So Liberty knows how to beat UTEP.

Why is this game important?

Both teams have only 1 win and 4 losses right now. The team that wins will feel much better and have hope. The team that loses will have a really hard time the rest of the year.

Where can I watch the game?

The game is on Wednesday at 8 p.m. Eastern Time. You can watch it on CBS Sports Network. It is played in El Paso, Texas, at the Sun Bowl.

Who has the better defense?

UTEP has the number 1 defense in its conference. They stop teams from getting many yards. But Liberty is the best at stopping passing plays.

Is it hard for Liberty to win at UTEP?

Yes, a little bit, because UTEP is playing at home. The crowd will be loud and cheer for the Miners. Still, Liberty is the favorite because they are the better team.

What is the best bet for this game?

Many smart bettors like Liberty -1.5 and Under 45.5 points. You can put both together in a parlay for bigger money. Some also like Liberty to win straight up on the moneyline.

Conclusion

In this Liberty vs UTEP prediction, the Flames win on the road, 24 to 20. They cover the 1.5-point spread, and the game stays under 45.5 points. Liberty plays smarter, and they have beaten UTEP the last two times. That should help them beat UTEP’s strong defense. The Miners will still make it a close game because they are playing at home. For bettors, grab Liberty ML; fans root for Vasko’s magic. This Week 7 clash reignites CUSA fire—Liberty rebounds, UTEP builds momentum.